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Bompangue, N.D., Giraudoux, P., Plisnier, P.-D., Tinda, A.M., Piarroux, M., Sudre, B., Horion, S., Muyembe, J.-J., Kebela, B. & Piarroux, R. 2011. ‘Dynamics of Cholera Outbreaks in Great Lakes Region of Africa,’. Emerging Infectious Diseases 17 (11): 2026-2034. URL: www.cdc.gov/eid I.F. 6,859.
Article dans une revue scientifique / Article dans un périodique
Cholera outbreaks have occurred in Burundi, Rwanda,
Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, Uganda, and
Kenya almost every year since 1977–1978, when the
disease emerged in these countries. We used a multiscale,
geographic information system–based approach to
assess the link between cholera outbreaks, climate,
and environmental variables. We performed time-series
analyses and fi eld investigations in the main affected areas.
Results showed that cholera greatly increased during
El Niño warm events (abnormally warm El Niños) but
decreased or remained stable between these events. Most
epidemics occurred in a few hotspots in lakeside areas,
where the weekly incidence of cholera varied by season,
rainfall, fl uctuations of plankton, and fi shing activities.
During lull periods, persistence of cholera was explained
by outbreak dynamics, which suggested a metapopulation
pattern, and by endemic foci around the lakes. These links
between cholera outbreaks, climate, and lake environments
need additional, multidisciplinary study.