Michellier, C.,  Wolff, E.,  Bifuko Bahati, M.,  Delvaux, D.,  Dewitte, O.,  d'Oreye, N.,  Havenith, H.-B.,  Kadekere, I.,  Kervyn, M.,  Matabaro Kulimushi, S.,  Poppe, S.,  Smets, B.,  Trefon, T. & Kervyn, F. 2016. ‘Challenges and results of risk assessment in Central Africa’. KWARSOM Young Researchers’ Overseas Day. Book of abstracts.

Résumé de colloque

The densely populated area extending within the Kivu rift is vulnerable to several geohazards, such as landslides, seismicity, and the strong activity of the Virunga volcanoes: Nyiragongo and Nyamulagira. GeoRisCA, a project funded by the Belgian scientific policy (2012-2016), was developed with the objective to study geo-risks in this region, in order to support regional and local risk management. Two urban sites located in eastern DRCongo were targeted: Bukavu, at risk of frequent mass movements, and Goma, threatened by lava flows of the Nyiragongo volcano. One of the main constraints of this project was the data scarcity regarding both the hazards monitoring and the population characteristics. As the project evolved, consistent hazards data were collected following (1) the installation of various equipment (GPS, seismometers) around the volcano (see B. Smets’s contribution), and (2) regular ground deformation measurements on landslides triggering highly densely populated areas (see O. Dewitte’s contribution). Besides, in collaboration with the local scientists, and based on an easy-to-reproduce methodology relying on remote sensing, quantitative field survey, and deep knowledge of the studied area, two demographic databases were built-up, one for each studied city (Michellier C. et al, 2016). A wide range of data has been collected that is representing a never- attended accurate baseline of socio-economic and vulnerability assessment information. The subsequent geo-statistical analysis that has been achieved is therefore providing a risk index reflecting the local context (Cutter S. et al., 2003; Guillard-Gonçalves C. et al., 2016). Local hazards, vulnerability and risk maps were developed as decision-supporting tools, enforcing risk management of existing preparedness and mitigation institutions. The relevance to develop risk scenarios as end-products was also considered. Indeed, given the local context, such sensitive outputs could be misinterpreted by the local authorities in charge of disaster management and risk reduction and it could lead to an inefficient use of the decision-supporting tools. Finally, it is crucial to underline that geo-risk assessment had never been achieved in this region so far. Furthermore, GeoRisCA strongly relies on a partnership with the local scientific institutions and the authorities in charge of disaster management and risk reduction. As such, GeoRisCA has attempted to bridge the gap between these stakeholders, evidencing the importance of an constant dialogue between scientists and authorities.